empty perfume atomizer costs. The four major multinational tobacco companies have tried their best to control retail prices through iron fist means. For example, in some markets, they suggest establishing a minimum consumption tax standard to ensure the lowest retail price. Later, they produced some high-end brands themselves to compete with conventional brands. However, such a strategy has only achieved results in a few short years. Today, the price of cigarette brands produced by the four major multinational tobacco companies has exceeded the range that customers can afford. Mistakes in operating strategies caused the four major multinational tobacco companies to have to increase cigarette prices, and the increase in prices triggered a further decline in overall cigarette sales. This allows many small and medium-sized enterprises to take the opportunity to enter the tobacco market and gain market share through more reasonable prices.銆€銆€ The big decline in the European market share of the four major multinational tobacco companies has triggered a fierce restructuring of the cigarette market. In the past two years, the dramatic changes in the supply market in Western Europe have fully demonstrated this: Philip Morris International issued a statement to close its factory in Bergen, Netherlands; Japan Tobacco International issued a statement to close its operations in Northern Ireland And Belgian factories; Imperial Tobacco issued a statement to close its factories in Nottingham, England and Nantes, France. The closure of the five factories mentioned above resulted in the unemployment of 3,000 workers. Outside Europe, some other factories have also been closed in the last year and a half, including Philip Morris International鈥檚 hand-rolled clove cigarette factories in Jember and Lumajang, Indonesia, its factory in Murabin, Australia, and Japan Tobacco鈥檚 Four factories in the country. The closure of the above-mentioned factories caused 7,000 workers to lose their jobs. In the production bases of the four major multinational tobacco companies, a total of 10,000 jobs just disappeared. And they did not build new factories, which means that consumer demand has further weakened.銆€銆€ In fact, comparing the history of cigarette development and recent data, the signs that the four major multinational tobacco companies are in a difficult period have become more and more obvious. According to 2010 data, the four major multinational tobacco companies accounted for 45% of the global market share, but by 2014, this number had dropped to about 38%. This means that compared with 2010, the four major multinational tobacco companies reduced their sales by 200 billion cigarettes in 2014.銆€銆€ The substantial increase in sales of high-strength discount cigarette brands and the gradual expansion of the low-price cigarette market indicate that competition in the international tobacco industry will become more intense. You can see from some details the difficulties they will face鈥攖he four major multinational tobacco companies will have to compete with their own brands, that is, their newly launched products, in order to be profitable. This is contrary to the "brand rationalization and streamline" strategy implemented by the four major multinational tobacco companies in order to ensure the growth of cigarette sales in the past few years. If you do not compete with your own brand, it means that strategic adjustments are imperative-looking for new opportunities in the current market to ensure that it can not only compensate for the losses caused by lower sales, but also effectively prevent future market downturns. .銆€銆€ The current political turmoil has made this difficult situation even worse. For example, the trade sanctions against Russia have dealt a huge blow to the country's market, and the value of the ruble plummeted like a free fall. At one time, the consumption of the Russian cigarette market could reach 380 billion cigarettes, and 95% of its market was controlled by the four major multinational tobacco companies. At the same time, it is worth noting that Japan Tobacco International relies mainly on the Russian market鈥攎ore than 40% of the company's profits come from there. Perhaps in the past two years, the entry into the Egyptian waterpipe market and the Belgian self-rolling cigarette market can be regarded as a prelude to the company's reduction of dependence on the cigarette market and the Russian market, but these measures may not be as effective as they should be. effect.銆€銆€ The Indonesian market continues to grow and has become the world's third largest consumer of cigarettes. However, only two of the four major multinational tobacco companies are active in the country's market. The cigarette market in Africa (mainly parts of the Middle East) has huge growth potential. You can boldly guess that for the four major multinational tobacco companies, if they do not adjust their strategies in time, the future will be quite bleak. Supply-side economics銆€銆€ In 2014, Brazil, the United States, Zimbabwe, and India saw a bumper harvest of tobacco crops, but they did not usher in the usual large acquisitions. The four major multinational tobacco companies have chosen the coping strategy of consuming tobacco leaf inventory.銆€銆€ In view of the existence of a large number of unregistered tobacco leaves, and the newly harvested tobacco leaves will be listed in the first quarter of 2015, the tobacco leaf market has already seen an oversupply situation. Major tobacco leaf manufacturers have issued a statement to lower their revenue expectations, which also reflects the current state of the tobacco leaf market. However, with the expected decline in demand for tobacco leaves in the first 6-9 months of 2015, many tobacco leaf manufacturers will be under additional pressure to cope with the problems caused by insufficient sales in 2015. Russia will play an important role in this market in order to obtain foreign exchange resources, and this will also put more pressure on tobacco leaf sales in 2015. Many insiders in the tobacco industry even predict that the tobacco leaf market will not return to the previous normal sales level until at least 2016. In fact, some people even suggest that the major tobacco merchants should unite to tide over the crisis.銆€銆€ The above situation clearly shows that the future tobacco market will be a buyer's market. In this way, some people will doubt that the four major multinational tobacco companies directly intervene in Brazil, the United States and Africa's tobacco leaf market operation "vertical integration" method is a kind of overlord logic. At the same time, perhaps the seemingly solid alliance of giants has already appeared a small crack, and there are signs that this alliance will not exist for long. Philip Morris International recently issued a statement stating that the company has given up its involvement in the operation of the American tobacco leaf market, and instead adopts a more traditional procurement method, purchasing local tobacco leaves through local tobacco leaf merchants in the United States. So, will we see changes in the tobacco leaf market in Brazil and Africa in the near future?銆€銆€In the forefront of non-tobacco products, some manufacturers have shifted their focus to Asian regions where demand continues to rise. However, under the general situation of mergers and closures, the overproduction of non-tobacco products in Europe and the United States still needs to be highly concerned in the next few years. In terms of tobacco equipment, based on the principle of "capacity replacement" instead of "capacity expansion", equipment sales have generally slowed down.銆€銆€ Through the above analysis, the author believes that in 2015, the four major multinational tobacco companies will face a tsunami year." />

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In 2015, the watershed for the development of the four major multinational tobacco companiesHigh-end cigarettes are not popular in this small cigarette shop on the corner of the French street, and in many countries, there are many retail shops like this. If you only rely on raising prices to make up for the losses caused by the decline in sales, it will obviously not be able to adapt to the future development of the cigarette market. When reviewing the development of the international tobacco market in 2014, we have to connect many points to see the "weather cloud map" of the international tobacco industry: the four major multinational tobacco companies have successively issued statements of decline in sales; mainly Tobacco-producing countries鈥 tobacco crops have increased significantly; the oversupply of tobacco leaves has led to a sharp decline in the profits of major international tobacco leaf manufacturers, by as much as 30% compared to the previous year; Russian domestic currency, the world鈥檚 second largest cigarette market, is collapsing due to policy influences the edge of. In addition, the legal cigarette market in the EU continues to shrink, and the illegal cigarette market has accounted for 1/10 of the market, and the "Arab Spring" has also affected the supply and sales channels of cigarettes.銆€銆€Under this situation, the development of the four major multinational tobacco companies seems to be at a watershed. This will make all the stakeholders attached to this value chain begin to change their positions and strategic choices鈥攅verything must focus on survival. Demand-side economics銆€銆€In order to predict the future performance of the international tobacco industry, it is necessary to analyze the needs of customers first, because this will have a significant impact on all other aspects of the entire industry. In 2014, the overall consumption of the global tobacco industry is estimated to be 5.8 cigarettes (1 is equal to 10 to the 12th power). In recent years, global tobacco consumption has fallen by 1 to 2 percentage points every year. The Japanese market has fallen the fastest, while the European Union, the United States and Eastern Europe (including Russia) are in a slow decline.銆€銆€ The four major multinational tobacco companies鈥擯hilip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Tobacco continue to publish single-digit sales decline reports. Philip Morris International said that from January to September 2014, its cigarette sales fell by 2.4 percentage points; Japan Tobacco said that during the same time period, its cigarette sales fell by 4.9 percentage points; Imperial Tobacco said that in 2014, its cigarette sales fell by 4.9 percentage points. The annual decline was 7 percentage points, while the decline of British American Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco was about the same. If estimated according to the annual sales level, the above-mentioned four major multinational tobacco companies have reduced their cigarette sales by approximately 70 billion in 2014.銆€銆€Part of the reason for this situation, some people attribute it to the rise of the e-cigarette market. But this statement cannot reveal the real reason for the overall slowdown in the industry. On a global scale, the market size of e-cigarettes is still small.銆€銆€The author believes that the fundamental reason for the decline in total cigarette sales is the so-called "premium" strategy adopted by the international tobacco industry. The essence of this strategy is to pass the cigarette excise tax on to consumers by maintaining a sufficiently high retail price to ensure the ultimate profit in the event of a decline in total sales. It is worth noting that a price demand analysis conducted for the global market reflects a new development trend (as shown in the table below).銆€銆€ The rapid growth of high-strength discount cigarettes shows that customers want to be able to buy cigarettes at a price that they can accept, rather than paying additional costs. The four major multinational tobacco companies have tried their best to control retail prices through iron fist means. For example, in some markets, they suggest establishing a minimum consumption tax standard to ensure the lowest retail price. Later, they produced some high-end brands themselves to compete with conventional brands. However, such a strategy has only achieved results in a few short years. Today, the price of cigarette brands produced by the four major multinational tobacco companies has exceeded the range that customers can afford. Mistakes in operating strategies caused the four major multinational tobacco companies to have to increase cigarette prices, and the increase in prices triggered a further decline in overall cigarette sales. This allows many small and medium-sized enterprises to take the opportunity to enter the tobacco market and gain market share through more reasonable prices.銆€銆€ The big decline in the European market share of the four major multinational tobacco companies has triggered a fierce restructuring of the cigarette market. In the past two years, the dramatic changes in the supply market in Western Europe have fully demonstrated this: Philip Morris International issued a statement to close its factory in Bergen, Netherlands; Japan Tobacco International issued a statement to close its operations in Northern Ireland And Belgian factories; Imperial Tobacco issued a statement to close its factories in Nottingham, England and Nantes, France. The closure of the five factories mentioned above resulted in the unemployment of 3,000 workers. Outside Europe, some other factories have also been closed in the last year and a half, including Philip Morris International鈥檚 hand-rolled clove cigarette factories in Jember and Lumajang, Indonesia, its factory in Murabin, Australia, and Japan Tobacco鈥檚 Four factories in the country. The closure of the above-mentioned factories caused 7,000 workers to lose their jobs. In the production bases of the four major multinational tobacco companies, a total of 10,000 jobs just disappeared. And they did not build new factories, which means that consumer demand has further weakened.銆€銆€ In fact, comparing the history of cigarette development and recent data, the signs that the four major multinational tobacco companies are in a difficult period have become more and more obvious. According to 2010 data, the four major multinational tobacco companies accounted for 45% of the global market share, but by 2014, this number had dropped to about 38%. This means that compared with 2010, the four major multinational tobacco companies reduced their sales by 200 billion cigarettes in 2014.銆€銆€ The substantial increase in sales of high-strength discount cigarette brands and the gradual expansion of the low-price cigarette market indicate that competition in the international tobacco industry will become more intense. You can see from some details the difficulties they will face鈥攖he four major multinational tobacco companies will have to compete with their own brands, that is, their newly launched products, in order to be profitable. This is contrary to the "brand rationalization and streamline" strategy implemented by the four major multinational tobacco companies in order to ensure the growth of cigarette sales in the past few years. If you do not compete with your own brand, it means that strategic adjustments are imperative-looking for new opportunities in the current market to ensure that it can not only compensate for the losses caused by lower sales, but also effectively prevent future market downturns. .銆€銆€ The current political turmoil has made this difficult situation even worse. For example, the trade sanctions against Russia have dealt a huge blow to the country's market, and the value of the ruble plummeted like a free fall. At one time, the consumption of the Russian cigarette market could reach 380 billion cigarettes, and 95% of its market was controlled by the four major multinational tobacco companies. At the same time, it is worth noting that Japan Tobacco International relies mainly on the Russian market鈥攎ore than 40% of the company's profits come from there. Perhaps in the past two years, the entry into the Egyptian waterpipe market and the Belgian self-rolling cigarette market can be regarded as a prelude to the company's reduction of dependence on the cigarette market and the Russian market, but these measures may not be as effective as they should be. effect.銆€銆€ The Indonesian market continues to grow and has become the world's third largest consumer of cigarettes. However, only two of the four major multinational tobacco companies are active in the country's market. The cigarette market in Africa (mainly parts of the Middle East) has huge growth potential. You can boldly guess that for the four major multinational tobacco companies, if they do not adjust their strategies in time, the future will be quite bleak. Supply-side economics銆€銆€ In 2014, Brazil, the United States, Zimbabwe, and India saw a bumper harvest of tobacco crops, but they did not usher in the usual large acquisitions. The four major multinational tobacco companies have chosen the coping strategy of consuming tobacco leaf inventory.銆€銆€ In view of the existence of a large number of unregistered tobacco leaves, and the newly harvested tobacco leaves will be listed in the first quarter of 2015, the tobacco leaf market has already seen an oversupply situation. Major tobacco leaf manufacturers have issued a statement to lower their revenue expectations, which also reflects the current state of the tobacco leaf market. However, with the expected decline in demand for tobacco leaves in the first 6-9 months of 2015, many tobacco leaf manufacturers will be under additional pressure to cope with the problems caused by insufficient sales in 2015. Russia will play an important role in this market in order to obtain foreign exchange resources, and this will also put more pressure on tobacco leaf sales in 2015. Many insiders in the tobacco industry even predict that the tobacco leaf market will not return to the previous normal sales level until at least 2016. In fact, some people even suggest that the major tobacco merchants should unite to tide over the crisis.銆€銆€ The above situation clearly shows that the future tobacco market will be a buyer's market. In this way, some people will doubt that the four major multinational tobacco companies directly intervene in Brazil, the United States and Africa's tobacco leaf market operation "vertical integration" method is a kind of overlord logic. At the same time, perhaps the seemingly solid alliance of giants has already appeared a small crack, and there are signs that this alliance will not exist for long. Philip Morris International recently issued a statement stating that the company has given up its involvement in the operation of the American tobacco leaf market, and instead adopts a more traditional procurement method, purchasing local tobacco leaves through local tobacco leaf merchants in the United States. So, will we see changes in the tobacco leaf market in Brazil and Africa in the near future?銆€銆€In the forefront of non-tobacco products, some manufacturers have shifted their focus to Asian regions where demand continues to rise. However, under the general situation of mergers and closures, the overproduction of non-tobacco products in Europe and the United States still needs to be highly concerned in the next few years. In terms of tobacco equipment, based on the principle of "capacity replacement" instead of "capacity expansion", equipment sales have generally slowed down.銆€銆€ Through the above analysis, the author believes that in 2015, the four major multinational tobacco companies will face a tsunami year.

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In 2015, the watershed for the development of the four major multinational tobacco companies

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High-end cigarettes are not popular in this small cigarette shop on the corner of the French street, and in many countries, there are many retail shops like this. If you only rely on raising prices to make up for the losses caused by the decline in sales, it will obviously not be able to adapt to the future development of the cigarette market. When reviewing the development of the international tobacco market in 2014, we have to connect many points to see the "weather cloud map" of the international tobacco industry: the four major multinational tobacco companies have successively issued statements of decline in sales; mainly Tobacco-producing countries鈥 tobacco crops have increased significantly; the oversupply of tobacco leaves has led to a sharp decline in the profits of major international tobacco leaf manufacturers, by as much as 30% compared to the previous year; Russian domestic currency, the world鈥檚 second largest cigarette market, is collapsing due to policy influences the edge of. In addition, the legal cigarette market in the EU continues to shrink, and the illegal cigarette market has accounted for 1/10 of the market, and the "Arab Spring" has also affected the supply and sales channels of cigarettes.銆€銆€Under this situation, the development of the four major multinational tobacco companies seems to be at a watershed. This will make all the stakeholders attached to this value chain begin to change their positions and strategic choices鈥攅verything must focus on survival. Demand-side economics銆€銆€In order to predict the future performance of the international tobacco industry, it is necessary to analyze the needs of customers first, because this will have a significant impact on all other aspects of the entire industry. In 2014, the overall consumption of the global tobacco industry is estimated to be 5.8 cigarettes (1 is equal to 10 to the 12th power). In recent years, global tobacco consumption has fallen by 1 to 2 percentage points every year. The Japanese market has fallen the fastest, while the European Union, the United States and Eastern Europe (including Russia) are in a slow decline.銆€銆€ The four major multinational tobacco companies鈥擯hilip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Tobacco continue to publish single-digit sales decline reports. Philip Morris International said that from January to September 2014, its cigarette sales fell by 2.4 percentage points; Japan Tobacco said that during the same time period, its cigarette sales fell by 4.9 percentage points; Imperial Tobacco said that in 2014, its cigarette sales fell by 4.9 percentage points. The annual decline was 7 percentage points, while the decline of British American Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco was about the same. If estimated according to the annual sales level, the above-mentioned four major multinational tobacco companies have reduced their cigarette sales by approximately 70 billion in 2014.銆€銆€Part of the reason for this situation, some people attribute it to the rise of the e-cigarette market. But this statement cannot reveal the real reason for the overall slowdown in the industry. On a global scale, the market size of e-cigarettes is still small.銆€銆€The author believes that the fundamental reason for the decline in total cigarette sales is the so-called "premium" strategy adopted by the international tobacco industry. The essence of this strategy is to pass the cigarette excise tax on to consumers by maintaining a sufficiently high retail price to ensure the ultimate profit in the event of a decline in total sales. It is worth noting that a price demand analysis conducted for the global market reflects a new development trend (as shown in the table below).銆€銆€ The rapid growth of high-strength discount cigarettes shows that customers want to be able to buy cigarettes at a price that they can accept, rather than paying additional costs. The four major multinational tobacco companies have tried their best to control retail prices through iron fist means. For example, in some markets, they suggest establishing a minimum consumption tax standard to ensure the lowest retail price. Later, they produced some high-end brands themselves to compete with conventional brands. However, such a strategy has only achieved results in a few short years. Today, the price of cigarette brands produced by the four major multinational tobacco companies has exceeded the range that customers can afford. Mistakes in operating strategies caused the four major multinational tobacco companies to have to increase cigarette prices, and the increase in prices triggered a further decline in overall cigarette sales. This allows many small and medium-sized enterprises to take the opportunity to enter the tobacco market and gain market share through more reasonable prices.銆€銆€ The big decline in the European market share of the four major multinational tobacco companies has triggered a fierce restructuring of the cigarette market. In the past two years, the dramatic changes in the supply market in Western Europe have fully demonstrated this: Philip Morris International issued a statement to close its factory in Bergen, Netherlands; Japan Tobacco International issued a statement to close its operations in Northern Ireland And Belgian factories; Imperial Tobacco issued a statement to close its factories in Nottingham, England and Nantes, France. The closure of the five factories mentioned above resulted in the unemployment of 3,000 workers. Outside Europe, some other factories have also been closed in the last year and a half, including Philip Morris International鈥檚 hand-rolled clove cigarette factories in Jember and Lumajang, Indonesia, its factory in Murabin, Australia, and Japan Tobacco鈥檚 Four factories in the country. The closure of the above-mentioned factories caused 7,000 workers to lose their jobs. In the production bases of the four major multinational tobacco companies, a total of 10,000 jobs just disappeared. And they did not build new factories, which means that consumer demand has further weakened.銆€銆€ In fact, comparing the history of cigarette development and recent data, the signs that the four major multinational tobacco companies are in a difficult period have become more and more obvious. According to 2010 data, the four major multinational tobacco companies accounted for 45% of the global market share, but by 2014, this number had dropped to about 38%. This means that compared with 2010, the four major multinational tobacco companies reduced their sales by 200 billion cigarettes in 2014.銆€銆€ The substantial increase in sales of high-strength discount cigarette brands and the gradual expansion of the low-price cigarette market indicate that competition in the international tobacco industry will become more intense. You can see from some details the difficulties they will face鈥攖he four major multinational tobacco companies will have to compete with their own brands, that is, their newly launched products, in order to be profitable. This is contrary to the "brand rationalization and streamline" strategy implemented by the four major multinational tobacco companies in order to ensure the growth of cigarette sales in the past few years. If you do not compete with your own brand, it means that strategic adjustments are imperative-looking for new opportunities in the current market to ensure that it can not only compensate for the losses caused by lower sales, but also effectively prevent future market downturns. .銆€銆€ The current political turmoil has made this difficult situation even worse. For example, the trade sanctions against Russia have dealt a huge blow to the country's market, and the value of the ruble plummeted like a free fall. At one time, the consumption of the Russian cigarette market could reach 380 billion cigarettes, and 95% of its market was controlled by the four major multinational tobacco companies. At the same time, it is worth noting that Japan Tobacco International relies mainly on the Russian market鈥攎ore than 40% of the company's profits come from there. Perhaps in the past two years, the entry into the Egyptian waterpipe market and the Belgian self-rolling cigarette market can be regarded as a prelude to the company's reduction of dependence on the cigarette market and the Russian market, but these measures may not be as effective as they should be. effect.銆€銆€ The Indonesian market continues to grow and has become the world's third largest consumer of cigarettes. However, only two of the four major multinational tobacco companies are active in the country's market. The cigarette market in Africa (mainly parts of the Middle East) has huge growth potential. You can boldly guess that for the four major multinational tobacco companies, if they do not adjust their strategies in time, the future will be quite bleak. Supply-side economics銆€銆€ In 2014, Brazil, the United States, Zimbabwe, and India saw a bumper harvest of tobacco crops, but they did not usher in the usual large acquisitions. The four major multinational tobacco companies have chosen the coping strategy of consuming tobacco leaf inventory.銆€銆€ In view of the existence of a large number of unregistered tobacco leaves, and the newly harvested tobacco leaves will be listed in the first quarter of 2015, the tobacco leaf market has already seen an oversupply situation. Major tobacco leaf manufacturers have issued a statement to lower their revenue expectations, which also reflects the current state of the tobacco leaf market. However, with the expected decline in demand for tobacco leaves in the first 6-9 months of 2015, many tobacco leaf manufacturers will be under additional pressure to cope with the problems caused by insufficient sales in 2015. Russia will play an important role in this market in order to obtain foreign exchange resources, and this will also put more pressure on tobacco leaf sales in 2015. Many insiders in the tobacco industry even predict that the tobacco leaf market will not return to the previous normal sales level until at least 2016. In fact, some people even suggest that the major tobacco merchants should unite to tide over the crisis.銆€銆€ The above situation clearly shows that the future tobacco market will be a buyer's market. In this way, some people will doubt that the four major multinational tobacco companies directly intervene in Brazil, the United States and Africa's tobacco leaf market operation "vertical integration" method is a kind of overlord logic. At the same time, perhaps the seemingly solid alliance of giants has already appeared a small crack, and there are signs that this alliance will not exist for long. Philip Morris International recently issued a statement stating that the company has given up its involvement in the operation of the American tobacco leaf market, and instead adopts a more traditional procurement method, purchasing local tobacco leaves through local tobacco leaf merchants in the United States. So, will we see changes in the tobacco leaf market in Brazil and Africa in the near future?銆€銆€In the forefront of non-tobacco products, some manufacturers have shifted their focus to Asian regions where demand continues to rise. However, under the general situation of mergers and closures, the overproduction of non-tobacco products in Europe and the United States still needs to be highly concerned in the next few years. In terms of tobacco equipment, based on the principle of "capacity replacement" instead of "capacity expansion", equipment sales have generally slowed down.銆€銆€ Through the above analysis, the author believes that in 2015, the four major multinational tobacco companies will face a tsunami year.

In 2015, the watershed for the development of the four major multinational tobacco companies

In 2015, the watershed for the development of the four major multinational tobacco companies

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High-end cigarettes are not popular in this small cigarette shop on the corner of the French street, and in many countries, there are many retail shops like this. If you only rely on raising prices to make up for the losses caused by the decline in sales, it will obviously not be able to adapt to the future development of the cigarette market. When reviewing the development of the international tobacco market in 2014, we have to connect many points to see the "weather cloud map" of the international tobacco industry: the four major multinational tobacco companies have successively issued statements of decline in sales; mainly Tobacco-producing countries鈥 tobacco crops have increased significantly; the oversupply of tobacco leaves has led to a sharp decline in the profits of major international tobacco leaf manufacturers, by as much as 30% compared to the previous year; Russian domestic currency, the world鈥檚 second largest cigarette market, is collapsing due to policy influences the edge of. In addition, the legal cigarette market in the EU continues to shrink, and the illegal cigarette market has accounted for 1/10 of the market, and the "Arab Spring" has also affected the supply and sales channels of cigarettes.銆€銆€Under this situation, the development of the four major multinational tobacco companies seems to be at a watershed. This will make all the stakeholders attached to this value chain begin to change their positions and strategic choices鈥攅verything must focus on survival. Demand-side economics銆€銆€In order to predict the future performance of the international tobacco industry, it is necessary to analyze the needs of customers first, because this will have a significant impact on all other aspects of the entire industry. In 2014, the overall consumption of the global tobacco industry is estimated to be 5.8 cigarettes (1 is equal to 10 to the 12th power). In recent years, global tobacco consumption has fallen by 1 to 2 percentage points every year. The Japanese market has fallen the fastest, while the European Union, the United States and Eastern Europe (including Russia) are in a slow decline.銆€銆€ The four major multinational tobacco companies鈥擯hilip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Tobacco continue to publish single-digit sales decline reports. Philip Morris International said that from January to September 2014, its cigarette sales fell by 2.4 percentage points; Japan Tobacco said that during the same time period, its cigarette sales fell by 4.9 percentage points; Imperial Tobacco said that in 2014, its cigarette sales fell by 4.9 percentage points. The annual decline was 7 percentage points, while the decline of British American Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco was about the same. If estimated according to the annual sales level, the above-mentioned four major multinational tobacco companies have reduced their cigarette sales by approximately 70 billion in 2014.銆€銆€Part of the reason for this situation, some people attribute it to the rise of the e-cigarette market. But this statement cannot reveal the real reason for the overall slowdown in the industry. On a global scale, the market size of e-cigarettes is still small.銆€銆€The author believes that the fundamental reason for the decline in total cigarette sales is the so-called "premium" strategy adopted by the international tobacco industry. The essence of this strategy is to pass the cigarette excise tax on to consumers by maintaining a sufficiently high retail price to ensure the ultimate profit in the event of a decline in total sales. It is worth noting that a price demand analysis conducted for the global market reflects a new development trend (as shown in the table below).銆€銆€ The rapid growth of high-strength discount cigarettes shows that customers want to be able to buy cigarettes at a price that they can accept, rather than paying additional costs. The four major multinational tobacco companies have tried their best to control retail prices through iron fist means. For example, in some markets, they suggest establishing a minimum consumption tax standard to ensure the lowest retail price. Later, they produced some high-end brands themselves to compete with conventional brands. However, such a strategy has only achieved results in a few short years. Today, the price of cigarette brands produced by the four major multinational tobacco companies has exceeded the range that customers can afford. Mistakes in operating strategies caused the four major multinational tobacco companies to have to increase cigarette prices, and the increase in prices triggered a further decline in overall cigarette sales. This allows many small and medium-sized enterprises to take the opportunity to enter the tobacco market and gain market share through more reasonable prices.銆€銆€ The big decline in the European market share of the four major multinational tobacco companies has triggered a fierce restructuring of the cigarette market. In the past two years, the dramatic changes in the supply market in Western Europe have fully demonstrated this: Philip Morris International issued a statement to close its factory in Bergen, Netherlands; Japan Tobacco International issued a statement to close its operations in Northern Ireland And Belgian factories; Imperial Tobacco issued a statement to close its factories in Nottingham, England and Nantes, France. The closure of the five factories mentioned above resulted in the unemployment of 3,000 workers. Outside Europe, some other factories have also been closed in the last year and a half, including Philip Morris International鈥檚 hand-rolled clove cigarette factories in Jember and Lumajang, Indonesia, its factory in Murabin, Australia, and Japan Tobacco鈥檚 Four factories in the country. The closure of the above-mentioned factories caused 7,000 workers to lose their jobs. In the production bases of the four major multinational tobacco companies, a total of 10,000 jobs just disappeared. And they did not build new factories, which means that consumer demand has further weakened.銆€銆€ In fact, comparing the history of cigarette development and recent data, the signs that the four major multinational tobacco companies are in a difficult period have become more and more obvious. According to 2010 data, the four major multinational tobacco companies accounted for 45% of the global market share, but by 2014, this number had dropped to about 38%. This means that compared with 2010, the four major multinational tobacco companies reduced their sales by 200 billion cigarettes in 2014.銆€銆€ The substantial increase in sales of high-strength discount cigarette brands and the gradual expansion of the low-price cigarette market indicate that competition in the international tobacco industry will become more intense. You can see from some details the difficulties they will face鈥攖he four major multinational tobacco companies will have to compete with their own brands, that is, their newly launched products, in order to be profitable. This is contrary to the "brand rationalization and streamline" strategy implemented by the four major multinational tobacco companies in order to ensure the growth of cigarette sales in the past few years. If you do not compete with your own brand, it means that strategic adjustments are imperative-looking for new opportunities in the current market to ensure that it can not only compensate for the losses caused by lower sales, but also effectively prevent future market downturns. .銆€銆€ The current political turmoil has made this difficult situation even worse. For example, the trade sanctions against Russia have dealt a huge blow to the country's market, and the value of the ruble plummeted like a free fall. At one time, the consumption of the Russian cigarette market could reach 380 billion cigarettes, and 95% of its market was controlled by the four major multinational tobacco companies. At the same time, it is worth noting that Japan Tobacco International relies mainly on the Russian market鈥攎ore than 40% of the company's profits come from there. Perhaps in the past two years, the entry into the Egyptian waterpipe market and the Belgian self-rolling cigarette market can be regarded as a prelude to the company's reduction of dependence on the cigarette market and the Russian market, but these measures may not be as effective as they should be. effect.銆€銆€ The Indonesian market continues to grow and has become the world's third largest consumer of cigarettes. However, only two of the four major multinational tobacco companies are active in the country's market. The cigarette market in Africa (mainly parts of the Middle East) has huge growth potential. You can boldly guess that for the four major multinational tobacco companies, if they do not adjust their strategies in time, the future will be quite bleak. Supply-side economics銆€銆€ In 2014, Brazil, the United States, Zimbabwe, and India saw a bumper harvest of tobacco crops, but they did not usher in the usual large acquisitions. The four major multinational tobacco companies have chosen the coping strategy of consuming tobacco leaf inventory.銆€銆€ In view of the existence of a large number of unregistered tobacco leaves, and the newly harvested tobacco leaves will be listed in the first quarter of 2015, the tobacco leaf market has already seen an oversupply situation. Major tobacco leaf manufacturers have issued a statement to lower their revenue expectations, which also reflects the current state of the tobacco leaf market. However, with the expected decline in demand for tobacco leaves in the first 6-9 months of 2015, many tobacco leaf manufacturers will be under additional pressure to cope with the problems caused by insufficient sales in 2015. Russia will play an important role in this market in order to obtain foreign exchange resources, and this will also put more pressure on tobacco leaf sales in 2015. Many insiders in the tobacco industry even predict that the tobacco leaf market will not return to the previous normal sales level until at least 2016. In fact, some people even suggest that the major tobacco merchants should unite to tide over the crisis.銆€銆€ The above situation clearly shows that the future tobacco market will be a buyer's market. In this way, some people will doubt that the four major multinational tobacco companies directly intervene in Brazil, the United States and Africa's tobacco leaf market operation "vertical integration" method is a kind of overlord logic. At the same time, perhaps the seemingly solid alliance of giants has already appeared a small crack, and there are signs that this alliance will not exist for long. Philip Morris International recently issued a statement stating that the company has given up its involvement in the operation of the American tobacco leaf market, and instead adopts a more traditional procurement method, purchasing local tobacco leaves through local tobacco leaf merchants in the United States. So, will we see changes in the tobacco leaf market in Brazil and Africa in the near future?銆€銆€In the forefront of non-tobacco products, some manufacturers have shifted their focus to Asian regions where demand continues to rise. However, under the general situation of mergers and closures, the overproduction of non-tobacco products in Europe and the United States still needs to be highly concerned in the next few years. In terms of tobacco equipment, based on the principle of "capacity replacement" instead of "capacity expansion", equipment sales have generally slowed down.銆€銆€ Through the above analysis, the author believes that in 2015, the four major multinational tobacco companies will face a tsunami year.

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In 2015, the watershed for the development of the four major multinational tobacco companies

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